When I sit down with buyers and sellers in Fairfax County, I always start with one number: supply. Supply tells you who has the leverage in a negotiation. Are buyers in control, or are sellers? Right now, even with some softening compared to last year, sellers still hold most of the cards.
At the end of September 2025, there were 1,044 active listings in Fairfax County between $500,000 and $1,000,000. That translates to just 1.9 months of inventory. In practical terms, if no new homes came on the market, everything currently available in that price range would sell in under two months. A balanced market is typically closer to five or six months of inventory. We are nowhere near that. We are still in what is fundamentally a seller-leaning environment.
Even looking ahead into October 2025, we are seeing very similar conditions: about 1,021 active homes and still around 1.9 months of supply. In other words, inventory is not opening up in a dramatic way. We’re not seeing a sudden flood of options, and that alone keeps pricing firm and negotiations competitive.
Even so, the market this fall is not identical to fall of last year. This time last year - October 2024 - Fairfax County only had about 720 active listings in this same price band, and only about 1.4 months of supply. Now we’re sitting just over 1,000 active homes and roughly 1.9 months. That’s about a 40% increase in available listings year-over-year. Buyers are finally getting a little more breathing room than they had last year. But it’s important to be honest: 1.9 months of supply is still not a buyer’s market. It simply means buyers don’t have to sprint and waive every protection instantly the way they did at the peak.
Let’s talk about pricing. For homes sold in Fairfax County in September 2025 within the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range, the median sold price was $700,000. The average sold price was $715,736. Across the month, we saw 528 homes close, representing a total sold volume of just under $378 million. This tells us something important about the type of property that is driving this market. We are not talking about ultra-luxury inventory. We are talking about the “normal” Fairfax County move: the young family moving up from a townhouse into a detached home with a yard, or the long-time homeowner downsizing from a large single-family home into something more manageable. This is where most buyers in our county live financially, and that segment continues to be extremely active.
On the listing side, sellers are still coming to market with confidence. In September, the median list price in this band was about $738,963, and moving into October it’s sitting around $729,900. You’ll notice those numbers are higher than the $700,000 median sold price. That gap matters. It tells us that buyers are negotiating - not in a dramatic, “slash the price 10%” way, but in a targeted, practical way. Buyers today are asking for credits, negotiating on inspection findings, and working to manage their monthly payment. Sellers are still getting strong sales numbers, but they aren’t getting absolutely everything they ask for, no questions asked.
Now, how fast are homes moving? The typical home in this price range in Fairfax County took about 24 days on market to get a contract in September 2025. If you include relists and cumulative time, that number is about 29 days. This is an important shift in tone compared to the “list Thursday, gone by Sunday” era that a lot of people still remember. Today’s buyer has enough time to actually think, come back for a second showing, and sometimes even include an inspection contingency. But let’s not swing too far in the other direction: 24 days on market is still fast. If you see a home you like and you say, “Let’s wait a few weeks and see what happens,” chances are very good that home will no longer be available. The market is not freezing up. It’s just behaving like a market instead of an auction.
We can also look at buyer activity to see if demand is truly still there, and the answer is yes. In September, 570 homes in Fairfax County went under contract in this price range. About 288 were marked as pending in that period, and 528 actually closed that same month. That tells us this is not a market where buyers are backing away. Buyers are active and writing offers, and sellers who price realistically and present the home well are getting to the closing table.
On the seller side, one of the biggest questions I get is: “Are homeowners still actually listing right now? I heard no one wants to sell because they don’t want to give up their low mortgage rate.” That was absolutely the story for a long time, but we are now seeing more sellers decide to move anyway. In September 2025, Fairfax County had 754 new listings in the $500,000–$1,000,000 band, totaling about $559.4 million in new list volume. Moving into October, 631 more new listings hit the market with an average list price around $737,723 and a median list price around $729,900.
Why are people listing again? In Fairfax County, a lot of it comes down to life events. Job changes. Downsizing. Needing more bedrooms. Divorce. Estate sales. Landlords choosing to sell instead of renovating older rental properties. For a while, ultra-low interest rates kept owners glued to their current homes. Now, real life is forcing movement again, and that’s bringing inventory back slowly, even in a higher-rate environment.
So what does all of this mean if you’re planning to sell? First, you still have leverage. With only 1.9 months of supply, you are not in a situation where buyers have 15 nearly identical options to choose from in your neighborhood. Second, prepare yourself for the current style of negotiation. Buyers are coming in qualified and serious, but they are also cautious about their payment. They may ask for credits for inspection items instead of walking away. You and I can structure that in a way that keeps the deal together and protects your bottom line. Third, the first 30 days of your listing are critical. The median time to go under contract is 24 days. If we go 40+ days with no serious activity, the market is giving us feedback on either pricing or presentation, and we should listen to it rather than getting stuck emotionally.
If you’re buying, the story is a little different. The first thing to understand is that $700,000 is now the middle of the market in Fairfax County for most standard, move-in ready homes between $500,000 and $1,000,000. For buyers coming from out of the area, especially from markets where $700,000 still feels like a luxury number, that can be surprising. The $500,000 townhouse that “just needs a little work” still exists, but you may have to compromise on either finish level or school pyramid.
The second thing is that you do have more room than you had last year. Last October, we were sitting at about 720 active listings in Fairfax County in this price band. Now we’re just over 1,000. That is a meaningful difference. It allows you to keep protections in your offer that buyers were terrified to ask for in 2022 and 2023. You can sometimes keep an inspection contingency. You can sometimes ask for a small seller credit instead of paying full cash out of pocket on repairs. That is real progress for buyers.
But you still need to be prepared. With a 24-day median time on market, you don’t have months to “think about it.” You need to be financially ready - fully underwritten, not just “pre-qualified” - before we even start viewing homes. When something fits, we have to move like serious buyers, because in this price range you’re often competing with well-qualified move-up buyers, relocation buyers coming into the D.C. region, and in some cases investors who still believe in Fairfax County rental demand long-term.
The bottom line for September 2025 is this: Fairfax County’s mid-market is still strong. Prices are holding in the $700,000 range for typical resale homes. Homes are selling in under a month on average. Supply is still low at 1.9 months, so sellers continue to have an advantage. At the same time, compared to last fall, buyers finally have a little more selection and a little more negotiating power. It’s not a buyer’s market, but it is no longer a panic seller’s market either.
If you’re thinking about selling, this is a window where you can still capture strong pricing without getting lost in a crowded field of competing listings. If you’re thinking about buying, this is a moment to get serious and strategic — not discouraged. The days of 20 offers in a weekend are mostly gone, but the good homes are still not sitting and waiting to be discovered a month later.
If you’d like numbers specific to your neighborhood, school pyramid, or target price point, I can pull that for you and walk you through timing, offer strategy, and monthly payment expectations based on current conditions in Fairfax County.
At the end of September 2025, there were 1,044 active listings in Fairfax County between $500,000 and $1,000,000. That translates to just 1.9 months of inventory. In practical terms, if no new homes came on the market, everything currently available in that price range would sell in under two months. A balanced market is typically closer to five or six months of inventory. We are nowhere near that. We are still in what is fundamentally a seller-leaning environment.
Even looking ahead into October 2025, we are seeing very similar conditions: about 1,021 active homes and still around 1.9 months of supply. In other words, inventory is not opening up in a dramatic way. We’re not seeing a sudden flood of options, and that alone keeps pricing firm and negotiations competitive.
Even so, the market this fall is not identical to fall of last year. This time last year - October 2024 - Fairfax County only had about 720 active listings in this same price band, and only about 1.4 months of supply. Now we’re sitting just over 1,000 active homes and roughly 1.9 months. That’s about a 40% increase in available listings year-over-year. Buyers are finally getting a little more breathing room than they had last year. But it’s important to be honest: 1.9 months of supply is still not a buyer’s market. It simply means buyers don’t have to sprint and waive every protection instantly the way they did at the peak.
Let’s talk about pricing. For homes sold in Fairfax County in September 2025 within the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range, the median sold price was $700,000. The average sold price was $715,736. Across the month, we saw 528 homes close, representing a total sold volume of just under $378 million. This tells us something important about the type of property that is driving this market. We are not talking about ultra-luxury inventory. We are talking about the “normal” Fairfax County move: the young family moving up from a townhouse into a detached home with a yard, or the long-time homeowner downsizing from a large single-family home into something more manageable. This is where most buyers in our county live financially, and that segment continues to be extremely active.
On the listing side, sellers are still coming to market with confidence. In September, the median list price in this band was about $738,963, and moving into October it’s sitting around $729,900. You’ll notice those numbers are higher than the $700,000 median sold price. That gap matters. It tells us that buyers are negotiating - not in a dramatic, “slash the price 10%” way, but in a targeted, practical way. Buyers today are asking for credits, negotiating on inspection findings, and working to manage their monthly payment. Sellers are still getting strong sales numbers, but they aren’t getting absolutely everything they ask for, no questions asked.
Now, how fast are homes moving? The typical home in this price range in Fairfax County took about 24 days on market to get a contract in September 2025. If you include relists and cumulative time, that number is about 29 days. This is an important shift in tone compared to the “list Thursday, gone by Sunday” era that a lot of people still remember. Today’s buyer has enough time to actually think, come back for a second showing, and sometimes even include an inspection contingency. But let’s not swing too far in the other direction: 24 days on market is still fast. If you see a home you like and you say, “Let’s wait a few weeks and see what happens,” chances are very good that home will no longer be available. The market is not freezing up. It’s just behaving like a market instead of an auction.
We can also look at buyer activity to see if demand is truly still there, and the answer is yes. In September, 570 homes in Fairfax County went under contract in this price range. About 288 were marked as pending in that period, and 528 actually closed that same month. That tells us this is not a market where buyers are backing away. Buyers are active and writing offers, and sellers who price realistically and present the home well are getting to the closing table.
On the seller side, one of the biggest questions I get is: “Are homeowners still actually listing right now? I heard no one wants to sell because they don’t want to give up their low mortgage rate.” That was absolutely the story for a long time, but we are now seeing more sellers decide to move anyway. In September 2025, Fairfax County had 754 new listings in the $500,000–$1,000,000 band, totaling about $559.4 million in new list volume. Moving into October, 631 more new listings hit the market with an average list price around $737,723 and a median list price around $729,900.
Why are people listing again? In Fairfax County, a lot of it comes down to life events. Job changes. Downsizing. Needing more bedrooms. Divorce. Estate sales. Landlords choosing to sell instead of renovating older rental properties. For a while, ultra-low interest rates kept owners glued to their current homes. Now, real life is forcing movement again, and that’s bringing inventory back slowly, even in a higher-rate environment.
So what does all of this mean if you’re planning to sell? First, you still have leverage. With only 1.9 months of supply, you are not in a situation where buyers have 15 nearly identical options to choose from in your neighborhood. Second, prepare yourself for the current style of negotiation. Buyers are coming in qualified and serious, but they are also cautious about their payment. They may ask for credits for inspection items instead of walking away. You and I can structure that in a way that keeps the deal together and protects your bottom line. Third, the first 30 days of your listing are critical. The median time to go under contract is 24 days. If we go 40+ days with no serious activity, the market is giving us feedback on either pricing or presentation, and we should listen to it rather than getting stuck emotionally.
If you’re buying, the story is a little different. The first thing to understand is that $700,000 is now the middle of the market in Fairfax County for most standard, move-in ready homes between $500,000 and $1,000,000. For buyers coming from out of the area, especially from markets where $700,000 still feels like a luxury number, that can be surprising. The $500,000 townhouse that “just needs a little work” still exists, but you may have to compromise on either finish level or school pyramid.
The second thing is that you do have more room than you had last year. Last October, we were sitting at about 720 active listings in Fairfax County in this price band. Now we’re just over 1,000. That is a meaningful difference. It allows you to keep protections in your offer that buyers were terrified to ask for in 2022 and 2023. You can sometimes keep an inspection contingency. You can sometimes ask for a small seller credit instead of paying full cash out of pocket on repairs. That is real progress for buyers.
But you still need to be prepared. With a 24-day median time on market, you don’t have months to “think about it.” You need to be financially ready - fully underwritten, not just “pre-qualified” - before we even start viewing homes. When something fits, we have to move like serious buyers, because in this price range you’re often competing with well-qualified move-up buyers, relocation buyers coming into the D.C. region, and in some cases investors who still believe in Fairfax County rental demand long-term.
The bottom line for September 2025 is this: Fairfax County’s mid-market is still strong. Prices are holding in the $700,000 range for typical resale homes. Homes are selling in under a month on average. Supply is still low at 1.9 months, so sellers continue to have an advantage. At the same time, compared to last fall, buyers finally have a little more selection and a little more negotiating power. It’s not a buyer’s market, but it is no longer a panic seller’s market either.
If you’re thinking about selling, this is a window where you can still capture strong pricing without getting lost in a crowded field of competing listings. If you’re thinking about buying, this is a moment to get serious and strategic — not discouraged. The days of 20 offers in a weekend are mostly gone, but the good homes are still not sitting and waiting to be discovered a month later.
If you’d like numbers specific to your neighborhood, school pyramid, or target price point, I can pull that for you and walk you through timing, offer strategy, and monthly payment expectations based on current conditions in Fairfax County.
"When I sit down with buyers and sellers in Fairfax County, I always start with one number: supply. Supply tells you who ..."
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